Avila: Chances of Fulmer trade “probably zero”
With two weeks to go before baseball’s non-waiver Trade Deadline, Michael Fulmer has become the most intriguing name to be speculated about the Tigers. That chill coming out of Detroit on Monday was the splash of cold water general manager Al Avila threw on the speculation on MLB Network.
“The probability of that kind of trade happening is probably zero,” Avila told Christopher Russo on his High Heat afternoon show. “It’s all speculation at this point. Obviously, you can never say never, but at the same time, it’s not probable at this point.”
That probably will not stop scouts from taking a look. Not all of the 10–12 scouts on hand at Fulmer’s last start Saturday were looking at him specifically, but many teams are keeping an eye on him. With many contenders looking for starting pitchers they can hold onto for a while without a big contract, some are going to follow what the Cubs did and make inquiries, if they haven’t already.
“Fulmer’s been a guy who has attracted a lot of attention,” Avila said. “It’s muddied the waters a little bit. Now there is speculation that we have him out there, and we don’t. But you can’t stop a team from calling and inquiring. We’re not going to be so naïve to where we say we’re not even going to listen. I’ve learned many, many years ago, if you can get two Michael Fulmers for one, it’s a pretty good trade.”
If that last part sounds familiar, it’s part of the approach Avila’s predecessor, Dave Dombrowski, always took into the Trade Deadline and offseason. Dombrowski never wanted to call a player untouchable, because he never wanted to eliminate the possibility of being overwhelmed by an offer for a player, even a great, young one.
While the Tigers encounter the challenge of finding teams willing to deal highly-regarded prospects for Justin Verlander while also taking on the bulk of his remaining contract, the potential return for Fulmer could be much larger. The irony would be that they’d be looking for the next Fulmer, who was a Mets prospect when the Tigers traded Yoenis Cespedes to New York two summers ago.
The Tigers head towards the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline with two goals: Reduce payroll and restock the farm system with good talent. Accomplishing both with Verlander will be difficult, given the contract. Trading Fulmer could reshape Detroit’s prospect rankings but would accomplish little with team payroll; Fulmer won’t be eligible for salary arbitration until after next season.
One big exception: If the Tigers decide they have to do something big and accelerate a rebuild, they could ask interested teams to take on one of their big contracts as part of a Fulmer offer, a tactic the Braves used in shedding the Melvin Upton Jr. contract as part of Craig Kimbrel’s trade to San Diego in 2015.
