Payroll impact of Tigers’ winter meetings trades

The on-field impact of Thursday’s trades for Yoenis Cespedes and Alfredo Simon has had a chance to air out. The financial impact really has not, and it might be a little different than you think.

All three major players in the deals — Cespedes, Simon and Rick Porcello — are in line to become free agents after this season. So in terms of long-term obligations, nothing has changed. For 2015, however, payroll has gone up. The impact of the bump depends on how much you expected the Tigers to spend on their outfield void.

The one guaranteed salary belongs to Cespedes, who’s due to make $10.5 million next year in his final season of arbitration. Both Porcello and Simon are eligible for arbitration one last time — Simon as a third-year eligible, Porcello as a fourth-year eligible thanks to his qualification as a super-two player a few years ago.

That super-two designation is huge for Porcello, who avoided arbitration last offseason with an $8.5 million deal. With 15 wins, three shutouts and 204 2/3 innings pitched in 2014, he’s in line for a major bump. Each fall, Matt Swartz uses case history and stats to project salaries for arbitration-eligible players on MLB Trade Rumors, and his track record is fairly good. The projections have Porcello in line for a $12.2 million salary in 2015.

Simon, too, is due for a big raise. However, because he spent most of his career as a reliever until this past season, he’s in line for a major raise from a comparatively smaller salary. He made $1.5 million this year. MLB Trade Rumors projects those digits to flip, earning him $5.1 million in 2015.

Wilson has just over a year of service time, and will make somewhere around the minimum salary for 2015. Take those players into consideration, and the Tigers take on just over $16 million in salary while shedding Porcello’s $12.2 million projection, thus adding a few million to the payroll. That said, if Detroit hadn’t made the deal and signed a free-agent outfielder of some impact, it likely would’ve ended up with a larger payroll. Cespedes’ salary is about the same as what Torii Hunter will make in Minnesota next year. (Update: Melky Cabrera reportedly agreed to a 3-year, $42 million deal with the White Sox late Saturday night.)

I’m not counting Eugenio Suarez’s salary as a savings, mainly because there was no guarantee for him making the Tigers roster in 2015 with Jose Iglesias expected back from injury and Andrew Romine and Hernan Perez both out of options and in competition for a utility spot.

The only long-term impact could come in the draft. The Tigers would have received a compensation pick in 2016 had Porcello left as a free agent. That’s now gone, and they won’t receive a pick if Cespedes signs somewhere else next winter. Cespedes’ contract forbids his team from making a qualifying offer.

32 Comments

I’m calling Cinci and offering Collins, Avila and Krol for Aroldis Chapman.

that might work, if Aroldis Chapman was a ball boy.

in the open trade market, Reds should be able to get a much better return than that. Avila is free agent next season while Krol and Collins are questionable on whether they’ll have MLB careers.

Scoff as you must, but that is actually not a bad deal fro them. They are unloading salray, getting a better catcher than they have, and getting an OFer with some pop and under control.

I tend to overvalue relievers – you might be right. ahrolldis is a very very good pitcher though. If we got him I would consider us a legitimate WS contender. With that said, the Reds aren’t sellers anymore, apparently: http://m.reds.mlb.com/news/article/103839270/reds-winter-meetings-moves-open-door-for-future-additions

But as DD mentioned, the two players added in the trade are a compensation for that lost draft pick.
Cespedes WAR is projected to be higher. Pitchers market is down while offense is at a premium.

Cespedes will be a big help, there is no question about that. Not his fault but he will be supplying power from the right side of the plate where we have Kinsler, Miggy, Casty and JMart. That’s OK but IMO he will have to step up his game from where it has led and utilize his speed on the bases to better advantage. He needs to be able to steal bases like he indicated he could when he broke in, Right now he is about equal to JD who is now speed demon by any means.
This guy can run and he needs to again become a complete threat as a ballplayer.
He becomes another Tiger I am really looking forward to next year alongside, Casty, Iggy and James McCann.
Our bench is going to look a lot different this year. Avila will be on it more, deservedly so. I expect Hernan Perez, TyCo and quite likely Romine to round that department out and that will be better than last year.

There’s only room on the roster for one of ” Perez , Romine and Collins”

Hmm … Doing the math, I count room for two. Four bench slots, one goes to backup catcher, another goes to Rajai Davis.

Check that. There’s room for 2 of them.

you forgot kelly

Adding Kelly and his 0.1 career WAR would mean losing both Romine and Perez since they are out of options
Collins, Davis,McCann until he takes over, and Romine unless Perez can learn to be an OF without playing it

i know i know. just kidding with ya. perez or romine though…that’s kinda tough one. can perez REAAALLLLY play OF? do we even need him to now?

Pingback: AL Central Notes: Santana, Tigers, Kluber – MLB Trade Rumors

The best trade DD has ever made may in fact be the one is he known for as getting rid of a player as opposed to obtaining one. (Fielder). An incredible piece of General Managerial work actually. Now if he could do the same with Nathan I would consider him HOF material!

White Soxs picked up Melky Cabrera.

Melky looks forward to seeing the Detroit Tigers bullpen, i’m sure.

BlueJays are back and they are going to benefit from their GM’s manoeuvres this year. Getting some draft picks too.

I suppose the remaining big questions this offseason are will they re-sign Scherzer? will Cabrera be recovered enough to play opening day? and will they try further to upgrade the bullpen?

1. No
2. Yes
3. If they don’t they are pretty dense!

Read an article today ( http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/poll-best-all-in-offseason-so-far.html )about the number of teams that are said to “be all in” for 2015.
Of the over 17,000 votes cast, almost half have been for the ChiSox. The Tigers are in dead last of the 6 teams with about 4% of the vote.
Obviously baseball fans outside of Motown are not too impressed with DD’s moves thus far.

i cast my vote for the whitesox, there yesterday. I think the important thing to remember is being all in implies sacrificing the future. That’s something bad teams have to do, sometimes, to get back to contention. For example, that contract to Pudge and signing Maggs to a big contract…those were both “going all in”. I would rather not abandon the future, and I’m glad DD improved the lineup without sacrificing the future (e.g. signing panda, signing max, etc.).

Leaderboard of the Day

Which hitters struck out looking most often in 2014? pic.twitter.com/qshUzKZwT5
Castellanos SO looking more than Avila

Mark Simon twitted the scoreboard

well….the associated 27% increase in PAs…..457 to 579…..translates to a 16% increase in looking Ks (37 to 43)…..from alex to nick.

so you could make an argument that Alex had a worse problem

NC: 7,43.% AB A A, 8.01 % of AB

Not really, his OBP is better. BTW. looks who is third

mmmmm yep that’s true. Frankly, Nick is a rookie and I feel sometimes Rookies are susceptible to K’s looking. and yeah i see Trout has a problem too

Tigers and Cards say they have not had negotiation talks regarding Scherzer. using Boras-logic, that leaves 28 teams still in the running for his services.

Nationals, Rangers, and Blue Jays….IMO….are the only ones who will sign him at his asking price

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