The numbers behind the Tigers’ draft debate

Opening Week has come and gone, and so far, there’s no sign of a deal between the Tigers and free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew. So for now, it looks like if there’s a chance at it happening, it’ll likely involve either a horrendous start from Alex Gonzalez, or Drew remaining on the market into June, which would take the draft compensation tag off of him.

It’s the draft pick that appears to be looming in importance for the Tigers, who currently hold the 23rd overall selection. It’s not just the pick, but the spending cap money that comes with it. A look at the numbers gives some hint why.

If nothing else changes between now and June, the Tigers will go into the draft with just under $4.9 million of cap money to spend on their top 10 picks, sixth lowest among the 30 Major League clubs. About $1.95 million of that money comes from their first-round pick, though they can spend some of that money elsewhere if they sign their top pick for below slot. If the Tigers sign Drew and forfeit their first-round pick, they’ll have just under $3 million to spend on their remaining nine picks. Only the Orioles ($2.2 million), who gave up draft picks to sign Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez this spring, would have less to spend.

Whether that decides this matter is certainly debatable. On the one hand, even with a new manager and younger players being worked, this is still a team looking to win now, and a team whose best chance to win looks like this year and maybe next as players hit free agency. On the other hand, Miguel Cabrera’s record deal puts a new imperative on player development to bring some younger, cost-controlled talent through the system to Detroit if the Tigers have any chance of staying a long-term contender, and this year’s draft reportedly runs deep in talent — deep enough that the late first round and the rounds beyond that should matter. Of course, the Tigers should get some extra help from next year’s draft if they make Max Scherzer a qualifying offer and he signs elsewhere.

Also, in case you were wondering, the Tigers have the sixth-lowest spending cap on international signings with just under $2 million. That won’t change whether the Tigers eventually sign Drew or not.

26 Comments

Just got a tweet from channel 7 stating tigers pitcher Evan Reed under investigation for a sexual assault. Terrific huh? Hope its not true but either way cant imagine that it wouldn’t effect results.

I think there is more than just the draft pick at issue.

The Tigers went to great lengths to keep an inevitably escalating payroll in check, and Drew would be a more expensive free agent than any that they signed last winter. The most expensive was Nathan at $ 9 million this season, averaging 10 mil per over two years. The only other one of significance is Davis at 5 mil per.

Drew declined a one year, $ 14.1 million offer from Boston. He over played his hand. He’s not that good. If the Tigers were going to pay that much, they should have made Peralta a qualifying offer.

It may be that, after June 15, they’re looking at say half a season for around 7 million, they can deal with that amount of overpayment.

All people have to do is check Cots Contracts to see our payroll. There is no way they want to sign him for that kind of dough.

Channel 7 ought to tell you something right there. Media bible says: “If It Bleeds, It Leads.” That’s how they get their clicks ‘and that tells us about what people like to read about first. Yesterday’s headlines in my paper: 2 men try to abduct 12 and 13 year old girls walking a dog. Today: Mistake. Men looking for their lost dog similar to one the girls were walking.

Bullpen and the OF are bigger concerns.

Dirks is expected to be out 2 months. Until then, LF is a big problem, especially vs RH pitchers. Andy had a decent second half last year. Lets hope he returns and can keep it up. The bullpen is a disaster, and predictably so.

The OF currently is Jackson, and aging RF with no range who cant keep the ball in the glove after bad routes and wont play more than 140 games plus the player expected to play the lesser role in a platoon.
Dirks? I have been his fan since he came with the Tigers but he is not a game changer and is another gamble: if he comes back healthy

It sounds bad, but, a motto I go by is always trust a man named Evan

Is Avila that good framing pitches or JV, MS and AS have the reputation and they get the calls?

Oh man, Infante got drilled in the face. Damn…….

We were watching the game, I thought the ball hit him near the mouth, or a little higher since there was blood in his forehead. But he is being tested for a fracture in the jaw and concussion

u b the judge

They showed the slow motion but even with that it looked like between the mouth and the eye. The ball came from nowhere.

Looked to me like it hit his chin or jaw area first and ricochet (sp) to his cheek and eye area,

Trouble in River City. Our bullpen is clearly undependable. Evan Reed’s situation is a concern to be sure. If this man is guilty then he should simply be gone. There is no justification for behaviour like that. Granted, this could be a case of a gold-digger but if it’s not DD has to do the right thing. No judgements, but this is not a forgiveable thing.
Dombrowski has to do something about this bullpen. It may mean trading a prospect (please not McCann), but something has to be done.
As to Drew, I’m thinking he is worth the draft pick but not worth the money.
You can’t have two areas of major concern in your lineup. LF can be dealt with, but not shortstop.
Alex Avila gets a pass on this. He is damn close to being a 3rd area of concern.

Dirks will be back as soon as the doctor gives the ok He is young and strong and should heal up . Back issues can nag on and on . He is going to have rehab time just hope they can hold down the fort for him !!!

The report on Reed seems pretty sketchy, but we will see what happens. If he did nothing wrong but was out and about til the wee hours the night before opening day then he should be a bit smarter about being ready for a day game. Regardless this will weigh on him if he did nothing wrong

Drew and Kendrys Morales are both in limbo as they just aren’t good enough, according to all 30 teams, to warrant loss of draft pick and salary. imo, free agent compensation should just end…instead, they should allow the trading of draft picks.

The system is better than the former. Two greedy players lost. It is their fault, not the system.
The compensation works to prevent teams from buying a championship unless they put a mortgage in their future. and that is good. Yes , it is( could be) working against the Tigers,bad luck. The rules were not designed against any team but the Yankees and Dodgers

40 years ago one of the biggest moments in baseball history. I watched that game in TV while trying to remain awake.

i don’t know if there will ever be bigger moment in baseball history, frankly.

I hope Collins can get it going. We really, really need a LHB working in our lineup. I don’t think Alex’s 2011 bat ever comes back. Sure hope I’m wrong because the combination of strength and swing that he has could be awesome. The problem is in his head.

If he can’t Carrera and Fields are hitting well in AAA. Play the hot hand until it’s not hot.

Pingback: Detroit Tigers 2014 Season Thread - Page 6 - OOTP Developments Forums

Vin Mazzaro anyone?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 25,308 other followers