The rationale behind the Anibal Sanchez Cy Young vote

Nobody should’ve expected Max Scherzer to be a unanimous selection for Cy Young. For me, even getting 28 out of 30 votes was a surprise. The bigger surprise to me, though, was the amount of statistical work that some voters put into selecting many of these guys. While some strong supporters of sabermetric rail against the value of the win, I think some on that side have pushed to put too much weight on one or two advanced metrics, such as Fielding Independent Pitching.

Mike Berardino, for instance, considered 13 different statistical categories for his Cy Young vote, from wins to ERA, from FIP to xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching). And he came to the surprising but respectable conclusion that Anibal Sanchez was his first choice. Scherzer received his second-place vote.

It was an excruciating call, but in the end I went with Sanchez because of his clear edge over Scherzer in ERA, FIP and xFIP as well as in the “luck” categories. Sanchez’s BABIP, for instance, was .307, slightly above league average, while Scherzer (.259) had the second-lowest BABIP of the seven. Scherzer also received this group’s best run support on his way to those 21 wins.

I could go on and risk boring you further, but believe me when I tell you I put a significant amount of time and thought into this process.

Chris Iott of MLive did something similar, putting together a spreadsheet on paper. Go from market to market, and I think you’ll find more examples.

So if people want to further the movement to discredit the win as a statistic, that’s certainly their right. I think it’s becoming less and less of a weighty stat, for what it’s worth. But the suggestion that Scherzer won because voters didn’t consider an advanced metric enough is just being melodramatic.

53 Comments

Norah, thanks for the link. I did not know that. It just seems that people run out of room and don’t want to write or type all the letters.

By being open to a contract extension, Max’s trade value goes up.

trade max for Howie Kendrick and be done with it.

NO WAY!!!

why not? Someone has to go – Kendrick is an excellent ballplayer and I think he could even lead off.

Howie Kendrick is the new Chone Figgins… no way is he worth one of Max’s starts, let alone one of his years.

I honestly don’t get the Chode Figgins comparison – am I missing something? He hits well, plays a decent 2B, can steal a few bases….. 3.3WAR and I can’t see Perez doing any better than 0.3 WAR. Max has a WAR of 6.7, so i can see the LAA tossing in a prospect and some bullpen arms.

I get the feeling we’d have this sabermetric debate with every award voted on, even when the sabermetricians and non-sabermetricans agree with the result.

How does trading a CY pitcher for a 2B of about the same caliber as Infante improve the team?

a) he won’t win the CY in 2014 (I’ll never post again on this blog if he does), b) H. Perez, c) Max is likely gone for nothing after this year, Kendrick would be around for another year.

Kendrick had 23 BB and 89 K this year, and 29 BB and 115 K the previous year. Come on, Evan.

OK OK fine, I’m convinced. To be fair I didn’t come up the proposed trade.

They won once the Cy Young based on ERA not W:
Felix Hernandez, 2010. Greinke, 2009 16 W ( Verlander , Felix and CC 19) .
Pedro Martinez 2000. The best season ever for a pitcher and did not win 20
And its nothing new.
Clemens 1991, 18 W ( Gullickson 20)
Before Bill James´ almanac;
Cuellar tied McClain 23-24( it was personal)
Vida Blue over Lolich. 1 full point better ERA and better K/9 for Blue
Vern Law over Warren Spahn
Turley over Spahn
I have always considered ERA a better measure of the quality of the pitcher and I not the only one . I learnt that in the 70s.
The injury was the only reason for not to vote for Anibal as winner.

Max Scherzer wins the Cy Young Award!!! Cy is smiling down on that one.

The best trade chip we have to get a blockbuster deal done is Anibal Sanchez. Any of you want to continue along this line of thinking?? We would have teams lined up for him. Which team has a solid second baseman under team control for at least a couple years or more??? Could Prince be part of the package??

The problem is , Scherzer will be a free agent next year unless you sign a 30 YO pitcher with a violent delivery to a 160-180 MM contract for 6 or 7 years. Fister must be locked and Sanchez is as locked as Verlander. Sanchez has almost the same, some better, numbers as Scherzer for a bargain price.
If Smyly will start ,give up on Porcello and ride the last year of Scherzer and get the compensatory pick in one year.

I would like them to sign more than one lefty reliever. There is no logic behind the only one LH needed. 4/3 RH /LH would be more reasonable.

Myself, I don’t see Scherzer going anywhere this winter.

MVP

Those vote for Trout are just preposterous. They are voting like fans while disguising themselves as experts. I can understand the votes for Davis. And they could find a better cause celebre than Miguel. They are seen as nativist in Latin America. They could pick another player to diminish

Gomez leaded Mclutchen in WAR. Where are the complains about giving the MVP to Mclutchen, who deserves it ?

did he lead him by nearly 3 games?

Since WAR is The Stat 0.1 would be enough

heeeeey, i didn’t say it was the stat just a stat a pretty good stat. and if it was 0.5 or 0.1 or even 1 maybe nobody would say anything. but since it is 2.8, people are debating. i know the arguments both ways you know i like cabby as mvp, but the discussion is ok too.

I hope he doesn’t Rich. Especially in light of the fact that he wants to stay. You have the Cy Young Award winner locked for another year, why get all analytical with the trading? Take the educated guess that 2014 will be another great year for Max. The problem of what to do with 6 starters still remains though. El Tigre may be right regarding Porcello. Nice to have at least one LHP in the rotation. Can Smyly do the job for 162 games? Could the organization wait to make a deal late into spring training? You never know what can happen, from now until opening day regarding injuries, etc….. the best laid plans of mice and men……..as the saying goes.

Congratulations, Miguel.
.
One more year to win the WS.
.
OT: How much longer before they take that picture of Big Papi off the front page of this blog. Boston Red Sox and their duck boats make me sick. It should have been us.

congrats to MIGGY he’s amazing at baseball and just a joy to watch him interact with….nearly everyone!

Way to go Miggy, congrats. Was watching it on MLB & I always enjoy seeing him with his kids. What a loving dad.

In what may be a first, I agreed with every award recipient this week. I did choose Iglesias but that was a hometown vote, and I also chose Yadier as MVP. The rest of my picks were the ones who received the award.

If they actually did trade Scherzer, I hope it’s to a NATIONAL league club.

got a favorite NL club you want him to land in, Rich? the nationals maybe?

That would be nice because I could go watch him live, but my main point is I don’t want him coming back to haunt the Tigers because you know he will.
The Nationals are very interested from what I hear. They want a starter. I’ll take Bryce Harper in return. :-)

according to once source, only 4 times has a reigning Cy Young winner been traded in the offseason:
.
David Cone from KC to Toronto for Chris Stynes and 2 minor leaguers.
.
Roger Clemens from Toronto to Yankees for David Wells, Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd.
.
Pedro Martinez from Montreal to Boston for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr.
.
R.A. Dickey from Mets to Toronto last offseason.

i’m too lazy to do it, but looking at their CY season stats compared to their stats with the new team (e.g. the next season) would be a good starting point.

Sanchez really did pitch well down the stretch. He did ok in the playoffs, but like the other, had little to no run support. I look forward to seeing what he will do next season.
http://minoringinbaseball.com/

Keep Max. He’s a Tiger, through and threw. Violent delivery? Yes, but also a competitor and a good soul.
Some guys aren’t smooth like JV or Anibal. What about Marichal? Bob Gibson? Lincecum? Darvish? Tiant?
I do understand the reservations regarding Max but I think a lot of the concern is visual and not physical. The guy is too smart to hurt himself.

Max’s delivery appears less violent the more consistent his delivery has become and that the consistency I saw in Spring Training was the reason I predicted Max would win the CY Young award on March 29th. 2012 is the only time I know of him having injury issues. His health history is better than Sanchez and they game him a five year contract.

interesting point re: health history and the comparison with Sanchez

Good call, Mark.

Rich, do we have to take Bryce Harpers ego too?

It’s part of the package.

is his ego bigger than Princes, Rich?

Max Scherzer started 32 times in both 2012 and 2013. In 2013, he threw 110 more pitches than he did in the previous season. So what did he get for that extra work?? He recorded eighty-one more outs while giving up 27 fewer hits, five fewer homers and four fewer walks. He was throwing three or four more pitches per start and getting between two and three more outs per game!!! Before the season I made a comment that I hoped his Ks went down by at least 50. He struck out nine more batters. So he ended up 21-3 and the Cy Young winner. Good job Maxwell!!! Oh, he has thrown between 3200 and 3400 pitches each season with the wins going up each season and the losses going down each year. He sure looks like a keeper.

Was wondering if ya’ll could help me out. What was the DATE of your favorite 2013 Tigers game or games? I am about to start relistening to the more memorable 2013 games….but I don’t want to know the final scores/outcome of the games I am going to listen to (so don’t tell me the score or what happens, just the date please).

So hard to pick one. So you choose between 4/29, 5/2, and 8/7. So many other good choices. One of the three is a Scherzer start. Be sure to be able to tell me how the score progressed in that game.

August 9 th
August 5 th , of course.
April 26 th
May 24th
April 7th

I usually like pitching duels

thanks ya’ll! Relistening to the games is a VERY important part of my offseason sanity.

JIM BOWDEN‏@JimBowdenESPNxm1h
Max Scherzer just told us “I don’t want to be traded. I want to be a Detroit Tiger. I hope they don’t mess it up” #SiriusXM

Look where that got Pena :p

Well given Max’s quote Rich has just pointed out, if they trade him now they are boneheads.

Some of my favorite games….

4/26 braves
8/5 Indians
8/24 Mets
8/29 a’s

Rogers wanted to play with Detroit so he fired his agent
Weaver wanted to remain in California so he ordered a home discount 85/5 with better numbers.
His career numbers are similar to Holladay thru 28 YO according to BR
but he is similar to Gallardo, Gio , Haren and Anibal but he wont take 90 /5 .
You need two to tango. The Tigers will trade him is his agent want too much for him

I visit each day a few blogs and information sites to read articles, however this
weblog offers feature based articles.

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