My guesses on arbitration

Everyone else seems to be playing the guessing game on which free agents the Tigers will offer arbitration, so I figure I might as well chip in with my two cents before the news comes out later today. As much of a financial hit as it could be for the Tigers if Placido Polanco accepted arbitration, I’m just not sure that it’s enough to justify passing up on a sandwich pick in next year’s draft and possibly a first-rounder if Polanco signs elsewhere. Polanco is at the point where multi-year security looks better than a one-year deal, and I’m not sure his chances at that become much clearer in six days. If there’s a concerted drive for the Tigers to bring in more young talent, this might be the simplest way they can do it this winter, so long as they believe Polanco wouldn’t accept the offer. But then, that’s the big question, isn’t it? In the end, it might still be too much of a risk.

Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney carry much less risk, since any team that signs them wouldn’t have to give up a pick. It’s just a supplemental pick or two after the second round in this case. And if you believe that multi-year contracts are big for both of them, there’s good reason to believe they wouldn’t want it. Everything Lyon’s agent, Barry Meister, has said indicates his client will get a multi-year contract. Rodney should, too, but in his case, he’s hitting free agency off one big year. If he were to accept arbitration off a 37-save season, the payout could be huge. I like Lyon’s chances of being offered arbitration more than that of Rodney, but I’m not sure the Tigers still wouldn’t offer it to Rodney.

In the end, the Tigers might offer Lyon and Rodney, but pass on Polanco. Again, just my opinion. We’ll see what happens.

2 Comments

I’m in the Caribbean right now (I know, tough life) so I’m following along as best I can. I can’t see how having Polanco for one more year is a risk at all unless there’s even less money than I thought. I doubt Lyon willl accept arby as he seems to want to settle somewhere.
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If it doesn’t rain, I’m going to try to attend a game at Roberto Clemente Stadium tomorrow night in Puerto Rico. BTW, the last time I was down here, the Tigers pulled off the Cabrera trade.
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–Rich

Considering there’s a chance of snow here in Michigan this week, Rich, I’m guessing you can live with the rain. Enjoy the game. Haven’t been to a game in PR, but I hear it’s a great atmosphere.

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