Bill James predicts 22 HRs for Raburn

Jason Beck /

So what happens every November, right around the time that the Bill James Handbook comes out, is that they send out an email to writers detailing what they project for the next season from certain players on their team. Generally, it’s a look at last season’s stats and a projection whether the player will build on those numbers or regress.

This year’s version is out, and the projections include a 22-homer season in 439 at-bats from Ryan Raburn, But as Bill James admitted in the email, they can’t predict or project playing time.

The projection on Raburn includes a .276 average, 73 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. What interested me, though, were projections for some of the hitters. Curtis Granderson, under their scenario, would bat .275 with 27 homers, 76 RBIs, 17 stolen bases and an .844 OPS — keeping a lot of his home-run power while still getting a bounceback on batting average. Magglio Ordonez is projected to bat .311 with 17 HRs and 84 RBIs.

On the pitching side, Rick Porcello would get a bit of a sophomore slump, going 10-11 with a 4.25 ERA in 195 innings.


Statman, I wanted to be first to post but I was reading the other thread. At least a Dave was first (ha ha). GK, I was kidding about the clubhouse, but some managers do not beleive in chemistry or mojo. Dan, you just had to remind me about 2006, the things I wanted to forget. I only remember the homerun by Maggs. Rich, I am so ready for the hot stove. It was 35 degrees here this morning. Do not trade Raburn. Dave, I think he could get the AB’s.

436 AB’s aint going to happen, at least not with the Tigs, which may well happen as Raburn is one of the few tradeable commodities we have unless DD develops an appetite for eating large chunks of contract.
I have decided to stay on the sideline about JL, mainly in a vain attempt to try and build some hope for the 2010 season. Yes, a sucker for punishment.
The litmus test for me as to whether the players are on board with JL will be how successful the winter negotiations go with JV extending his contract beyond 2011.

DM Dave, with a bit of faith and the power of the Blog, you posted first anyway!!
I sure hope Raburn stays a Tig but DD just hates bringing his bad contracts to account and cut his losses.
Not suggesting in any way that Maggs, Miggs and Carlos were bad contracts but the team now only has room for two of these players. DD might surprise us here like he did with Sheff this year and hopefully this time get some great potential in return.

Maggs, Miggs, and Carlos and now there’s only room for two? Where is one of them going? Dontrellle, maybe, but not the names you mention, imo.

So this is like the Farmers Almanac of baseball? What an extremely odd thing – like there is any way to predict what a player will do. How would you like to read that you are predicted to do worse next year than this year? Then again, I don’t get how you can rank a team before a season starts either, so there I go thinking again…

Actually, it’s more like a bible than a farmer’s almanac. Pretty much most teams use sabermetrics to evaluate players. It’s pretty accurate, but I don’t believe it always tells the whole story.

So another tortuous and anti-climactic WS has ended. FINALLY! I watched very little of this “Fall Classic.” The reigning champion playing the best team money could buy. Not very high on the interest scale.
The Yankees bought it, plain and simple. This is a far cry from how they did it in the pre-1965 days. I don’t want to hear about the Tigers “big” payroll, as it doesn’t hold a candle to the money the Yankees throw around. There’s also no comparison to the 2008 Tigers. The Tigers supposedly improved the club with trades, not free agents. The Yankees, on the other hand, already had an excellent club BEFORE they went out and bought each of the top three free agents on last winter’s market. I don’t see how they and their fans believe they accomplished much of anything worthwhile. My only question is how they managed NOT to win a WS for eight years.
To quote Forrest Gump, that’s all I have to say about that.

I watched most of it, but feel pretty much the same way you do, Rich. It was anticlimatic and they didn’t even seem that excited about it. They reminded me of bankers and walll street.

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